Much time had been lost, and sailing had already become dangerous because by now it was after the Day of Atonement. So Paul warned them, “Men, I can see that our voyage is going to be disastrous and bring great loss to ship and cargo, and to our own lives also.” – Acts 27:9-10

Today’s Scripture Reading (January 20, 2015): Acts 27

In “Star Trek, The Original Series,” it was always fun to hear Mr. Spock calculate the odds of something happening. But we also knew going in that the odds didn’t really matter. No matter what the odds were, Captain Kirk was going to go through with the plan. After all, the odds never take into consideration the intangibles – and the determination of a Star Ship Captain. This idea of going against the odds seems to be a major part of story within the Star Trek franchise, as is the calculation of the odds. In “The Next Generation” the job of calculating the odds fell to Commander Data, who often seemed to hear from those around him that they had no desire to hear the odds. In “Voyager” it was the unflappable Tuvok that made the calculations. But no matter who was making the odds calculations, the results were always the same – the plan would go ahead against the odds. And often, the plan would also be successful, even against long odds.

Real life is seldom like that. We might beat the odds once in a while, but as a rule it just doesn’t happen. Las Vegas is built on that very principle. The odds in the Nevada gambling establishments are all in the favor of the house, and sometimes you can beat the house, but most of the time the house beats you. In our Lotteries the same principal holds. Sometimes, someone wins. But for a person to win that multi-million dollar prize, there has to be a lot of people who are willing to pay for the privilege of losing.

Paul has not received a word from God that tells him that the trip is dangerous. This is also not a case of Jonah running away from God and, therefore, putting his fellow travelers at risk. Paul is simply performing the role of Mr. Spock, Data, and Tuvok – he is calculating the odds. For ancient sailing ships, the trip across the Mediterranean Sea was always dangerous, but at certain times of the year it was even more dangerous; and at other times the trip was simply impossible. Common sense dictated that ancient vessels should not sail the Mediterranean between September 15 and March 15. But it was technically still possible to sail the Mediterranean until about mid-November – it just was not advisable. And Paul knew exactly what he was talking about. He had already been shipwrecked, more than once.

But there was apparently a rush to get Paul to Rome, and so the trip is embarked on late in the year. According to Acts, the boat left its port on the East side of the Mediterranean after the Day of Atonement (Yom Kipper). Some have estimated that Paul’s trip back to Rome started in 59 C.E. If that is true, then in 59 the Day of Atonement took place on October 5. But whatever the year was, the Day of Atonement always took place in the danger zone after September 15 – and usually in the early days of October.       

The trip was ill advised, the odds were against the ship ever reaching Rome. But Paul’s warning (much like the warnings of Spock, Data and Tuvok) falls on deaf ears. No matter what the odds, the trip has to be attempted. And the only hope is that luck and the intangibles will make for a successful trip – against all of the odds.

Tomorrow’s Scripture Reading: Acts 28