But the Philistine commanders were angry with Achish and said, “Send the man back, that he may return to the place you assigned him. He must not go with us into battle, or he will turn against us during the fighting. How better could he regain his master’s favor than by taking the heads of our own men? – 1 Samuel 29:4

Today’s Scripture Reading (February 14, 2016): 1 Samuel 29

The best predictor of future behavior is … past behavior. It seems to be the mantra of our society. It would definitely seem to be the thought that dominates the “Dr. Phil Show” and others of that genre. But while it would seem to be intuitive, psychologists seem to be unsure whether or not the Dr. Phil mantra is actually true. Part of the problem is “what exactly do we mean by past behavior?” A dividing line needs to be drawn somewhere because there are many types of behavior that are a part of our physical makeup. If the behavior is based on immaturity, then hopefully as we grow older we will mature (yes, I recognize that that does not always happen) and we will grow out of our past behavior. If past behavior is limited in the number of occurrences, then there is no definite line between the past and the future. If past behavior is based on a habit, then the reoccurrence of the behavior in the future can be expected at least until something is done to break the habit. If behavior in the past is based on a core belief that we hold as people, then it reoccurrence is even more likely in the future. The reality is that not all past behavior is created equal and, therefore, not all past behavior is equally predictive of our actions in the future.

Apparently the ancient Philistine commanders were well acquainted with the Dr. Phil mantra. As they looked at David, all that they could see was the enemy. This was a man who had defeated them in battle before. This was the one who had gained his notoriety in a one on one battle against a Philistine hero named Goliath in which Goliath lost and David won. No matter what the recent past of David may or may not have shown, there was no way that they wanted David anywhere near their current battle with Israel. It is likely that they believed that, at his core, David was still a general in army of Saul. And if he went into battle against Israel, it would be that core belief that would win out. Because the best predictor of future behavior … is past behavior. And in this case they may have been right.

To be honest, we have no idea what David’s intentions were as he marched with the Philistines toward Israel. It might be that David was as uneasy about his presence in the coming battle as the Philistine commanders were. David had had the opportunity to cause Saul pain in the past and had consistently refused to raise a hand against the current king of Israel. Now, it might be that he needed a way out and yet he also needed to retain his masquerade of being loyal to the Philistine cause in front of the Philistine commanders. And the commanders were about to provide him with exactly the excuse that David needed not to go to war against his own people. With his Philistine disguise still intact, he could return home to plan his next move as he waited patiently to become king – not because of anything that he did, but because of the feelings of the other Philistine commanders toward him. 

Tomorrow’s Scripture Reading: 1 Samuel 30